Petrol Prices October 2025: Mixed Outlook for South African Motorists

Published: September 29, 2025

South African motorists are bracing for the October 2025 fuel price adjustments, which are set to take effect on Wednesday, October 1, 2025. The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reveals a mixed picture, with modest changes expected across different fuel types.

The Bottom Line

According to the most recent fuel recovery data, petrol users can expect minimal changes at the pumps. Petrol 93 (Unleaded) is projected to remain unchanged, while Petrol 95 (Unleaded) will see a marginal increase of approximately 8 cents per litre. Diesel users, however, will benefit from a small price reduction of around 9 to 10 cents per litre.

Expected Prices

Based on current projections, motorists can anticipate the following prices from October 1:

• Petrol 95 Unleaded: R20.79 per litre at the coast and R21.58 per litre in Gauteng

• Petrol 93 Unleaded: Approximately R21.42 per litre

• Diesel (50ppm): R18.64 per litre at the coast and R19.40 per litre inland

• Illuminated paraffin: Expected 10-cent decrease

A Shifting Forecast

The October outlook has evolved considerably over the past month. Early in September, data from the CEF indicated a more significant increase of around 20 cents per litre for both petrol grades. However, favourable currency movements and stable international oil prices have softened the expected impact on consumers.

What's Driving the Changes?

Several key factors are influencing October's fuel price adjustments:

Currency Strength

The South African rand has shown remarkable resilience, appreciating to a one-year high of R17.30 against the US dollar in late September. This stronger rand has provided approximately 14 cents of relief in the fuel price equation. The currency's strength follows significant inflows into the local bond market and has been trading around R17.38 to the dollar.

International Oil Markets

International oil prices have remained relatively stable and historically low throughout 2025, contributing to overall fuel price stability. While international fuel product prices have fluctuated, they have not experienced the dramatic spikes seen in previous years.

Exchange Rate Impact

The rand's better-than-expected performance against a weaker US dollar has been a significant factor in cushioning South African consumers from more substantial price increases. Since fuel is priced in dollars on international markets, exchange rate movements play a crucial role in determining local pump prices.

The Bigger Picture

The relatively stable fuel prices in 2025 mark a welcome change for South African consumers who have experienced significant volatility in previous years. Both petrol and diesel prices have maintained a degree of stability thanks to the combination of low international oil prices and favourable currency conditions.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy conducts monthly reviews of fuel prices, taking into account global oil market conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, and local factors. These adjustments are designed to reflect the true cost of importing and distributing fuel across the country.

Regional Variations

As always, fuel prices vary by region due to transportation costs and other logistical factors. Coastal areas typically enjoy lower prices due to their proximity to refineries and ports, while inland regions, particularly Gauteng, face higher costs due to additional transportation expenses.

What This Means for Consumers

For the average motorist, the October adjustments represent relatively minor changes. Those using Petrol 93 will see no change to their fuel costs, while Petrol 95 users will pay just 8 cents more per litre—a negligible increase for most budgets. The real winners this month are diesel users, particularly commercial operators and businesses that rely heavily on diesel-powered vehicles.

The 10-cent decrease in illuminated paraffin prices will also provide some relief to lower-income households that depend on this fuel source for heating and cooking.

Looking Ahead

The official fuel price adjustments were announced early this week, ahead of the October 1 implementation date. While forecasts can shift based on last-minute changes in international markets or exchange rates, the current indicators suggest a relatively benign month for fuel prices.

Market analysts will continue monitoring global oil markets, particularly any developments that could impact crude oil prices, as well as the rand's performance against major currencies. Any significant shifts in these factors could influence fuel price adjustments in subsequent months.

Expert Perspective

Energy analysts note that 2025 has been characterised by unusual stability in fuel prices, a stark contrast to the volatility experienced in recent years. The combination of moderate global demand, sufficient supply, and South Africa's improved currency position has created favourable conditions for consumers.

However, experts caution that fuel prices remain vulnerable to external shocks, including geopolitical tensions, production disruptions, or sudden currency fluctuations. Motorists are advised to remain mindful of fuel consumption and consider fuel-efficient driving practices regardless of price movements.

Conclusion

The October 2025 fuel price adjustments bring modest relief rather than significant pain for South African motorists. While not representing dramatic decreases, the minimal changes—and even slight reductions for some fuel types—reflect the stabilizing factors at play in both international and domestic markets. As the country heads into spring, consumers can approach the pumps with a measure of confidence that their fuel budgets will remain relatively intact.

Note: Final prices are subject to official government announcement and may vary slightly from projections based on last-minute market movements.